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Hurricane Laura check in


Charles Nicholls

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My wife is in Aiken, South Carolina visiting my Army buddies wife (God rest his soul), and she told me yesterday the airlines are putting out the possibility that her flight may be delayed next Saturday back home.

I hope all in the path fair well, and if you have evacuation orders, go, please.

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I just wish I could be as wrong in my job as TV weather forecasters and still claim, "The Weather Authority," "Most Accurate Weather," and "First Alert Weather."     I don't know why they do a seven day forecast when they can't even do 12 hours better than half right.  We were supposed to get rain today.  It was partly cloudy. Not an unusual story here as they try to out panic each other.  

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That was one nasty storm.  We won't see the extent of the damage for days.  With no electricity, cell phone towers are out, servers are out,  there will be very little info coming from there.  That is some very low land and the storm surge was supposed to push about 30 miles inland.  We don't know if it did.  I did see one news clip where a high rise had the glass being torn out, the metal that held it in place being ripped and blown about.  These storms are not to be messed with.  When areas rebuild, it will never look the same.  We still have houses missing from Hurricane Ivan in 2004.  It will take at least a week to get most electricity back on.  Others will be out for 2 weeks and those whose houses and buildings too seriously damaged will have to wait until their building are habitable again.  So, according to the forecast track, it is supposed to get some of southern Missouri, western Tennessee and Kentucky, most of Kentucky, maybe some of Indiana and southern Ohio (Cincinnati region) some of PA and then into the north east up over Nova Scotia.  There will be plenty of rain.  We sent some to Cal and Gunny.  We got some showers and we were about 150 miles away.  Nice breezes the past couple of days.  Now back to the regular summer stale heat.  

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Here in Arkansas we got some pretty heavy rain for a while and some pretty good wind but really there was only about four hours of it and then it was done. The one thing that saved their butts on the forecast for our area anyway, is the fact that they said it was going to pick up speed and move out of the area pretty quickly, it did! 😂🤪

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Hey Guys!  I appreciate the thoughts; we did ok here in NW Louisiana.  We're in Bossier City, east and north of Shreveport.  Our neighborhood sustained winds in excess of 50 mph with gusts much higher, some large trees down a few streets over, fences down and gone, shingles and trampolines airborne, and a fair amount of rain with some flash flooding.  We lost power a half dozen times but never for long, others weren't so lucky.  The back side of our gated subdivision is on a different grid and they were without power for a day.  Two miles away is a different story on power - they're not expecting to be back up for another 3-4 days.

 

But overall we were spared and no tornadoes spun off that I know of and tornadoes were what we feared most.  

 

Thanks for asking!

David

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On 8/27/2020 at 4:15 PM, kmealy said:

I just wish I could be as wrong in my job as TV weather forecasters and still claim, "The Weather Authority," "Most Accurate Weather," and "First Alert Weather."     I don't know why they do a seven day forecast when they can't even do 12 hours better than half right.  We were supposed to get rain today.  It was partly cloudy. Not an unusual story here as they try to out panic each other.  

Atmospheric dynamics, aka, meteorology, is an extremely complex system with infinite real-time variability that makes it nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen. Best estimate at the moment of analysis is the norm. 

hat

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2 minutes ago, hatuffej said:

Atmospheric dynamics, aka, meteorology, is an extremely complex system with infinite real-time variability that makes it nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen. Best estimate at the moment of analysis is the norm. 

The same is true of any automobile drivability issue.  But I don't get paid six figures to guess.  :ROFL:

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If you want to learn about atmospheric conditions, the variables, the quick changes, just enroll at a local community college and take the class, Earth Science or Astronomy class.  You'll be amazed how quickly things can change, how powerful even suns rays can be on the atmosphere.  I have forgotten many things from those classes, but I do appreciate them trying to second guess based on the information that is collected and analyzed at the time of presentation.  Hurricanes can be super variable.  I have watched them many times coming into land, when the outer winds come ashore, the resistance will cause the hurricane to shift eastward as much as 50 miles.  Nothing is precise.  

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