Charles Nicholls Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Hi all, so far so good up here in Arkansas, of course, it (The eye) hasn’t even hit the coast yet. I just heard a bit ago though, That the hurricane has hit category 4 status. Let’s all use this thread to check in on those that are in the path and those that care about those that are in the path. 🤗 Link to comment
lew Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Great idea! We are only supposed to get some rain here in PA. Link to comment
Fred W. Hargis Jr Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 I was just watching the news...that thing may still be a hurricane entering Arkansas. Seems like it would have slowed down more than that by then. Link to comment
John Morris Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 My wife is in Aiken, South Carolina visiting my Army buddies wife (God rest his soul), and she told me yesterday the airlines are putting out the possibility that her flight may be delayed next Saturday back home. I hope all in the path fair well, and if you have evacuation orders, go, please. Link to comment
Charles Nicholls Posted August 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 Well, the extreme northern band of the storm is almost here to my area. Light rain at first but then we’ll be getting the yellows and reds. It should make for an interesting day. Link to comment
kmealy Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 I just wish I could be as wrong in my job as TV weather forecasters and still claim, "The Weather Authority," "Most Accurate Weather," and "First Alert Weather." I don't know why they do a seven day forecast when they can't even do 12 hours better than half right. We were supposed to get rain today. It was partly cloudy. Not an unusual story here as they try to out panic each other. Link to comment
HandyDan Posted August 27, 2020 Report Share Posted August 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, kmealy said: We were supposed to get rain today. We were too. Showed rain from 10:00AM to 8:00PM tonight. Not just rain but thunder storms. They were right for 5 minutes and no thunder. Link to comment
FlGatorwood Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 That was one nasty storm. We won't see the extent of the damage for days. With no electricity, cell phone towers are out, servers are out, there will be very little info coming from there. That is some very low land and the storm surge was supposed to push about 30 miles inland. We don't know if it did. I did see one news clip where a high rise had the glass being torn out, the metal that held it in place being ripped and blown about. These storms are not to be messed with. When areas rebuild, it will never look the same. We still have houses missing from Hurricane Ivan in 2004. It will take at least a week to get most electricity back on. Others will be out for 2 weeks and those whose houses and buildings too seriously damaged will have to wait until their building are habitable again. So, according to the forecast track, it is supposed to get some of southern Missouri, western Tennessee and Kentucky, most of Kentucky, maybe some of Indiana and southern Ohio (Cincinnati region) some of PA and then into the north east up over Nova Scotia. There will be plenty of rain. We sent some to Cal and Gunny. We got some showers and we were about 150 miles away. Nice breezes the past couple of days. Now back to the regular summer stale heat. Link to comment
Charles Nicholls Posted August 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Here in Arkansas we got some pretty heavy rain for a while and some pretty good wind but really there was only about four hours of it and then it was done. The one thing that saved their butts on the forecast for our area anyway, is the fact that they said it was going to pick up speed and move out of the area pretty quickly, it did! 😂🤪 Link to comment
Gunny Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, FlGatorwood said: We sent some to Cal and Gunny. I suspected you would do that, cut the grass this evening. Link to comment
Cal Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 9 hours ago, FlGatorwood said: We sent some to Cal and Gunny. Not sure when you sent it, or when we might expect it... maybe it got lost in the mail? Link to comment
Fred W. Hargis Jr Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 I saw some of the damage on Weathernation this morning in Louisiana, looks to be pretty bad. I'm sure the news will have more today on the damage....do we have any members in LA that might have been in the path? Link to comment
Cal Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 58 minutes ago, Fred W. Hargis Jr said: do we have any members in LA that might have been in the path? There may be others in LA or TX, but @difalkner comes to mind. How about a check in David? Link to comment
difalkner Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 Hey Guys! I appreciate the thoughts; we did ok here in NW Louisiana. We're in Bossier City, east and north of Shreveport. Our neighborhood sustained winds in excess of 50 mph with gusts much higher, some large trees down a few streets over, fences down and gone, shingles and trampolines airborne, and a fair amount of rain with some flash flooding. We lost power a half dozen times but never for long, others weren't so lucky. The back side of our gated subdivision is on a different grid and they were without power for a day. Two miles away is a different story on power - they're not expecting to be back up for another 3-4 days. But overall we were spared and no tornadoes spun off that I know of and tornadoes were what we feared most. Thanks for asking! David Link to comment
hatuffej Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 On 8/27/2020 at 4:15 PM, kmealy said: I just wish I could be as wrong in my job as TV weather forecasters and still claim, "The Weather Authority," "Most Accurate Weather," and "First Alert Weather." I don't know why they do a seven day forecast when they can't even do 12 hours better than half right. We were supposed to get rain today. It was partly cloudy. Not an unusual story here as they try to out panic each other. Atmospheric dynamics, aka, meteorology, is an extremely complex system with infinite real-time variability that makes it nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen. Best estimate at the moment of analysis is the norm. hat Link to comment
Gunny Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, hatuffej said: Atmospheric dynamics, aka, meteorology, is an extremely complex system with infinite real-time variability that makes it nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen. Best estimate at the moment of analysis is the norm. The same is true of any automobile drivability issue. But I don't get paid six figures to guess. Link to comment
Larry Buskirk Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 The only way I know for sure if they are even close is when I stick my head outside. Link to comment
difalkner Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 I have found them to be close to 75% accuracy the day after, sometimes approaching 80%! David Link to comment
FlGatorwood Posted August 29, 2020 Report Share Posted August 29, 2020 If you want to learn about atmospheric conditions, the variables, the quick changes, just enroll at a local community college and take the class, Earth Science or Astronomy class. You'll be amazed how quickly things can change, how powerful even suns rays can be on the atmosphere. I have forgotten many things from those classes, but I do appreciate them trying to second guess based on the information that is collected and analyzed at the time of presentation. Hurricanes can be super variable. I have watched them many times coming into land, when the outer winds come ashore, the resistance will cause the hurricane to shift eastward as much as 50 miles. Nothing is precise. Link to comment
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